There is no doubt the Blazers will shop the No. 13 pick before the draft is held next month, exploring whether they can use it to acquire a veteran rather than continue assembling teams that never seem to age. It certainly seems to be Portland’s wisest option.
But just as the Blazers have built themselves into a position in which draft picks are no longer necessary to build a better future, timing may not be on their side. There may be too many teams looking to shop their picks this summer, and not enough teams looking to acquire them.
Yes, the NBA could face a bear market for draft picks this year. And the flood of available selections could make it difficult for the Blazers to get more value in a trade than they could by using the pick itself.
Draft picks are commodities whose values wax and wane like any limited resource in a free-market system. If demand exceeds the supply, the value generally rises. If supply reigns, the value falls.
And on Tuesday, Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard acknowledged that the league’s older, successful teams may not be ready to start the rebuilding process just yet, which could leave a shortfall in the demand for picks.
“Teams are still in that arms race and they think that they can get to that championship,”
Pritchard said following the lottery. “I think we’re about a year away from teams really realizing where they are.”
At the same time, reports from other NBA cities suggest there may be a glut of lottery teams who are interested in shopping their picks, including Minnesota (No. 3 pick), Seattle (No. 4), New York (No. 5), the L.A. Clippers (No. 7), Milwaukee (No. 8), Charlotte (No. 9) and New Jersey (No. 10).
Even Miami president Pat Riley indicated immediately after the Heat landed the No. 2 overall selection that he would shop that coveted pick — where either Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose will be available — over the next month.
That’s nine of 14 lottery teams possibly interested in a trade — a lot of potential supply higher on the draft board than the Blazers sit, which could directly affect the value of the 13th pick if fewer teams show an interest in moving up.
And right now, there don’t appear to be many.
Teams like Dallas, Phoenix and Los Angeles already swung major trades during the year for more experience and talent in preparation for a championship run. They will likely continue fine tuning rather than start adding youth this summer.
Young teams like Utah, New Orleans and Orlando have recently matured into contenders. And while established teams like San Antonio, Detroit and Boston are aging, they have also proved in this year’s playoffs that there is still usable mileage on the parts they have.
Do any of those teams sound like they are ready to start trading veterans for draft picks?
Now think about what Pritchard predicted will determine the value of the 13th pick: “It depends on how many teams around the league are truly trying to get young and get better with their youth and go with the youth movement. If there are more of those teams, the competition heats up for the 13th pick.”
With that in mind, even a casual glance at the league suggests the Blazers may not have a great deal of leverage.
But keep in mind, even NBA personnel are still getting a feel for other teams’ true interest levels. They probably will not have a strong sense of the landscape until at least next week’s draft camp in Orlando.
But there is potential for a bear market among traders this year. And while the Blazers appear interested in shopping their draft pick, the competition may limit their options.
